Uzbekistan’s Higher Education Boom

Alex Usher: Hi everyone. I'm Alex Usher and this is The World of Higher Education Podcast.
Uzbekistan is not a country that intrudes on the Western consciousness very much. If people think of the country at all, they tend to think of it for its past glories. Perhaps they know a little bit about the Silk Road cities of Tash Kent and Bukhara, or maybe they think of the brilliant city of Samarkand whose registrant and observatory built by the scientist, king Ulugh Beg briefly made the region the world's center of astronomy and mathematics in the early 15th century.
But since the Silk Road's decline, central Asia has become something of an economic backwater. And after the disappearance of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan experienced both economic and environmental catastrophes. The disappearing Aral Sea lies mostly in Uzbek territory, and an authoritarian post-Soviet government, which worried about political stability so much that it limited access to higher education so as to avoid a source of unrest.
And then about 10 years ago, Uzbekistan suddenly decided to embark on one of the biggest human capital catch up exercises the world has ever seen. Thanks to a booming youth population, rising secondary completion rates, and a growing economy, there was huge demand for higher education. And so in that last decade, the higher education system expanded fivefold. Many new foreign universities were invited into the country to help raise standards and accommodate booming demand. A private university system has arisen basically from scratch in just the last eight years. It's in short, one of the most amazing stories of growth and turnaround in global higher education in the last decade.
With me today to discuss all of this is Komiljon Karimov. He's the Rector of Westminster International University in Tesh Kent, and he also recently spent three years as first deputy Minister of the Minister of Higher Education, Science and Innovation of the Republic of Uzbekistan. He's had an almost unparalleled view of the changes that have been wrought in Uzbek higher education over the past decade. We jammed a lot into this discussion, but the point that was most interesting to me was Komiljon's assertion that quality assurance, always a tall order in a system growing as fast as Uzbekistan's, had to be driven, first and foremost by institutional autonomy. I really wish I heard that more often, but enough from me over to Komiljon.
So Komiljon, let's set the stage here a little bit. In the Soviet period, and you know right up to maybe 15 years ago, Uzbekistan was fairly underdeveloped in terms of higher education — low enrollment rates, not much in terms of scientific output. Why was that?
Was it simply a matter of economic underdevelopment or were there other factors at work?
Komiljon Karimov: Alex, I think, if you look back at Uzbekistan higher education system, you know, during the Soviet time and the first decades after independence, it's important to avoid judging it by today's standards. First of all, firstly, what I should say, Uzbekistan's uh, education, uh, tradition, research tradition is deeply rooted in our history, right?
So, but of course, in the sake of saving time, we're not going to be, uh, diving deep into history, but uh, as you asking about the Soviet period and the, uh, the first decades after independence, we should say that the system was not designed, the Soviet one and then, uh, what we inherited from Soviet system, that system was not really designed to be mass higher education. Yeah, it was, uh, deliberately selective, tightly aligned, with a planned economy. And it was also highly specialized higher education. It, it doesn't mean it was bad. In terms of the output it produced, it probably served the, purpose at that time. Yeah. But, um, uh, I wouldn't say that it was underdeveloped, really. Uh, it was, uh, well developed I think. And in fact, Uzbekistan even during the Soviet time, it was kind of a center, uh, in terms of the education and research, at least for Central Asia. But of course you cannot really judge it by current standards in terms of scientific output because, uh, the papers obviously were not published in English, right? Uh, or yes, but they were highly, effective applied, and they served the purpose of that period, I would say, yeah? Uh, but right after independence, of course, especially the first years after 1990s, they were the severe crisis and everything in economy, public finances, and it obviously impacted, uh, the education overall and higher education in particular. So, uh, there was a sharp decline in terms of the, uh, enrollment to higher education. Yes. And of course, uh, the scientific output, uh, was not rewarded in the way, uh, it was done in global research systems. Yes, there was a significant decline at that period of time I would, I would argue.
Alex Usher: Right. But then in the early 2010's, you know, the mid 2010's, the country gets a new president, uh, Mirziyoyev. Is that the spark for a change in thinking about higher education? Was it a political change or was it just, hey, there's a lot of new students coming? Because you had a big demographic wave of, of youth, uh, you know, coming up from about 2015 onwards.
Komiljon Karimov: No, that, point of our history, I would say was a turning point, not just for education, but overall I would say transformation of this country. Uh, because, until, you know, the mid, uh, 2000 and tens, you know, that, period of our history, our country was in fact quite closed, I would say, yeah? In many terms. In terms of the economy, uh, in terms of the interaction with the outside of the world. So, uh, and with the new leadership of the country, I say, as I said, it was a turning point, uh, in the history and, uh, uh, of course higher education was, uh, also impacted very much. And, uh, uh, you know, and uh, as I said, it was a broad, transformation of the state, I would say.
And higher educational reform, uh, was part of that shift. Yeah. And so this was not just a change in educational philosophy, I would argue it was a rethinking of economic and social development, more general.
Alex Usher: Yeah. And what about, what about demographics? Because, uh, you know, central Asia is quite different from the rest of the ex-Soviet Union. You know, in those countries you saw birth rates falling in the 1990s and then never really coming back. Whereas in Uzbekistan, and I guess a couple of other, uh, central Asian states, you had a very strong bounce back in demography around 2000. So there is this big wave of students coming into the system now. Is that, is that about right?
Komiljon Karimov: Absolutely, absolutely. Demographics, I think that's one of the unique features of this country because, you know, if you compare with, uh, the data, uh, so pre independence or even, uh, when, uh, we just gained independence, 1991. So the population of Uzbekistan was around 18 million, right? So in this 34 years, it more than doubled.
So now, uh, we close to 40 million, people Nation of Uzbekistan. So I, and the, the population growth was steady, in fact, uh, so annually around 2.3, to 2.5% population growths. And, uh, it never really fall down from those figures. So it is steady, but what we can see in the recent, uh, two, three years, I think it, it, it has a tendency to, to stabilize, I say.
So there is no, uh, very sharp increase in terms of the population growth, but still there is a growth, uh, so around 2% annually. Uh, so yeah, we put the demographics plays of course, key role obviously in, in this particular sector.
Alex Usher: So I understand the jump in undergraduate enrollment over the past decade has been around 500%. Have I got that right?
Komiljon Karimov: Yes. Yes, absolutely.
Alex Usher: So I'm not sure any country in the world has ever scaled up its higher education system that quickly. Not even, you know, even China at its at the peak growth was not that fast. That must be incredibly difficult. I mean, was that planned or was it just an explosion of, of pent up demand? How did you, uh, you know, how do you deal with an influx of that size? What, what are the big bottlenecks
Komiljon Karimov: You are right. So, uh, if we compare data from 2017, uh, when I think this, the new higher education reform agenda was set and, uh, if you compare to what we have now, they, from 9% enrollment to higher education to around 42%. So almost, uh, the 500%, as you said, in terms of student number, it's even bigger in absolute numbers.
From 250,000, uh, students in higher education to 1.5 million right now. So even six, uh, fold sixfold increase in student population. Imagine. Yeah. And of course, uh, you can't say it was, you know, chaotic kind of explosion. No, it was planned. And, uh, what I would say, you know, and I always tell this to my colleagues, you know, that we, in what we have in Uzbekistan in higher education sector, it's actually, it's according to a strategic plan, and in fact, uh, you can read this plan in 2020. Uh, the government has adopted the, uh, the strategy for, uh, higher education sector development. If you look at the, the targets there, you'll see that by 23 and it's 10 year plan, uh, up to 2030. Yeah. So in this 10 year plan, it was, uh, quite boldly, uh, stated that country has a great ambition in terms of the student enrollment and, uh, actually the target, uh, is to reach 50%, uh, enrollment in higher education by 2030.
So I think we, uh, on right track to this 42% and, uh, uh, five years to go. I'm sure we'll be on target. So, uh, the short answer. It is planned, yes, but there are of course bottlenecks, uh, and you can imagine, you know, such an, uh, explosive growth. Uh, so there are, uh, the, uh, important, uh, issues that needs to be addressed.
One, uh, is of course the quality of provision. Yeah. And understand, uh, in terms of the regulatory issues, because we, it's not just numbers, but also the diversity of, uh, the providers, you know, so in, in that, uh, complex arrangement, obviously there are issues related to, uh, regulatory framework, legal framework.
So, uh, those are, I think, but also the capacity of, uh, the teaching staff. Yeah. So all of these are important bottlenecks. But right after independence, of course, especially the first years after 1990s, they were the severe crisis and everything in economy, public finances, and it obviously impacted, uh, the education overall and higher education in particular. So, uh, there was a sharp decline in terms of the, uh, enrollment, uh, to higher education. Yes. And of course, uh, the scientific output, uh, was not rewarded in the way it was done in global research systems. Yes, there was a significant decline at that period of time I would, I would argue.
Alex Usher: Right. But then in the early 2010's um, you know, the mid 2010's the country gets a new president, um, uh, Mr. Uh, Mirziyoyev uh, does that, is that the spark for a change in thinking about higher education? Uh, is it, was it a political change or was it just, hey, there's a lot of new students coming because you had a big demographic wave of, of youth, uh, you know, coming up from about 2015 onwards.
Komiljon Karimov: No, that, uh, point of our history, I would say was a. Turning point, not just for education, but overall I would say transformation of this country. Uh, because, uh, right, uh, until, you know, the mid, uh, 2000 and tens, you know, that, uh, uh, period of our history, our country was. In fact quite closed, I would say. Yeah, in many terms.
In terms of the economy, uh, in terms of the interaction with the outside of the world. So, uh, and with the new leadership of the country, I say, as I said, it was a turning point, uh, in the history and, uh, uh, of course higher education was, uh, also impacted very much. And, uh, uh, you know, and uh, as I said, it was a broad, uh, transformation of the state, I would say.
And higher educational reform, uh, was part of that shift. Yeah. And so this was not just a change in educational philosophy, I would argue it was a rethinking of economic and social development, more general.
Alex Usher: And and what about.
Komiljon Karimov: yeah,
Alex Usher: Yeah. And what about, what about demographics? Because, uh, you know, central Asia is quite different from the rest of the ex-Soviet Union. Um, you know, in those countries you saw birth rates falling in the 1990s and then never really coming back. Whereas in Uzbekistan, and I guess a couple of other, uh, central Asian states, uh, you had a very strong bounce back in demography around 2000.
So there is this big wave of students coming into the system now. Is that, is that about right?
Komiljon Karimov: Absolutely, absolutely. Demographics. I think that's one of the unique features of this country because. You know, if you compare with, uh, the, uh, the data, uh, so pre independence or even, uh, when, uh, we just gained independence, 1991. So the population of Uzbekistan was around 18 million, right? So in this 34 years, it more than doubled.
So now, uh, we close to 40 million, uh, people Nation of Uzbekistan. So I and the, the population growth was steady, in fact, uh, so annually around 2.3, uh, to 2.5% population growths. And, uh, it. Never really, uh, fall down from those figures. So it is steady, but what we can see in the recent, uh, two, three years, I think it, it, it has a tendency to, to stabilize, I say.
So there is no, uh, very sharp increase in terms of the population growth, but still there is a growth, uh, so around 2% annually. Uh, so yeah, we put the demographics plays of course, key role obviously in, in this particular sector.
Alex Usher: So I understand the jump in undergraduate enrollment over the past decade has been around 500%. Have I got that right?
Komiljon Karimov: Yes. Yes, absolutely.
Alex Usher: So I'm not sure any country in the world has ever scaled up its higher education system that quickly. Not even, you know, even China at its at the peak growth was not that fast. That must be.
Incredibly difficult. I mean, was that planned or was it just an explosion of, of pent up demand? How did you, uh, you know, how do you deal with an influx of that size? What, what are the big bottlenecks
Komiljon Karimov: You are right. So, uh, if we compare data from 2017. Uh, when I think this, the new higher education reform agenda was set and, uh, if you compare to what we have now, they, from 9% enrollment to higher education to around 42%. So almost, uh, the 500%, as you said, in terms of student number, it's even bigger in absolute numbers.
From 250,000, uh, students in higher education to 1.5 million right now. So even six, uh, fold sixfold increase in student population. Imagine. Yeah. And of course, uh, you can't say it was, you know, chaotic kind of explosion. No, it was planned. And, uh, what I would say, you know, and I always tell this to my colleagues, you know, that we, in what we have in Uzbekistan in higher education sector, it's actually.
Uh, it's according to a strategic plan, and in fact, uh, you can read this plan in 2020. Uh, the government has adopted the, uh, the strategy for, uh, higher education sector development. If you look at the, uh, the, the targets there, you'll see that by 23 and it's 10 year plan, uh, up to 2030. Yeah. So in this 10 year plan, it was, uh, quite boldly, uh, stated that country has a great ambition in terms of the student enrollment and, uh, actually the target, uh, is to reach 50%, uh, enrollment in higher education by 2030.
So I think we, uh, on right track to this 42% and, uh, uh, five years to go. I'm sure we'll be on target. So, uh, the short answer. It is planned, yes, but there are of course bottlenecks, uh, and you can imagine, you know, such an, uh, explosive growth. Uh, so there are, uh, the, uh, important, uh, issues that needs to be addressed.
One, uh, is of course the quality of provision. Yeah. And understand, uh, in terms of the regulatory issues, because we, it's not just numbers, but also the diversity of, uh, the providers, you know, so in, in that, uh, complex arrangement, obviously there are issues related to, uh, regulatory framework, legal framework.
So, uh, those are, I think, but also the capacity of, uh, the teaching staff. Yeah. So all of these are important bottlenecks.
Alex Usher: And how has this growth been financed? I mean, this is expensive, this, this, this isn't cheap what you've done, right? So is this all been financed by government or have students been asked to contribute more through tuition fees? How? Where does the money come from? I.
Komiljon Karimov: Yeah, so of course expansion on this scale is expensive and Uzbekistan adopted, I think a mixed financing model, I would say. So of course, state remained the primary, uh, the funder, particularly for infrastructure in public universities. But students and their parents, the sponsors also began to contribute, uh, more through tuition fees.
Right? Uh, so this was not simply privatization, I would say it was form of cost sharing. Suggest designed to make the system financially stable. So tuition was a component, but I think here what we say, as I said, there was a diversity of providers. We still keep large number of public universities, but then, uh, the, uh, state also give inputs to development of, uh, private providers.
Yeah. And then international, uh, the, uh, branch campuses or taes. Yeah. So this the mixture of different providers. Also, uh, they put forward different financing approaches, but definitely to, uh, to cut the answer short, yes, students are contributing their parents, their sponsors contributing more towards the, uh, education than it was before.
But what is important to say? We talk about numbers, but the government. Had, again, very deliberate policy to support those who need support at most. Yeah. So disadvantage the students from poor backgrounds. Yeah. With the scholarships. Then female students in particular at the was graduate level, they study for free now in Pakistan and this now brought, uh, to the fact that we have now 70% of our postgraduate students are females.
They study for free. So, and it's government funded, right? So Government now targets those who need support at most.
Alex Usher: We're gonna take a short break. We'll be right back. And we're back. Kimiljon, I want to, uh, pick up on the points that you made about, uh, new institutional forum and, and new sectors in Uzbekistan. Uh, I read recently that Uzbekistan is now the third largest host of international branch campuses. Um.
That's an interesting way to, of course, you are a president of, of, of, uh, of one international institution. That's Westminster University in Tashkent. Um, how did the government go about integrating international campuses into a national strategy? And were there particular types of institutions that the country was trying to attract?
Komiljon Karimov: Yeah. So no. First of all, what I should say that they, um. Presence of, uh, many international branch campuses, as you just said, uh, is very much a deliberate policy choice. For Uzbekistan, and again, if you look at this strategy, which I had mentioned, you'll see that the ambition is to, uh, to, to, to establish regional higher education, uh, happier, uh, in Uzbekistan, you know, so to attract, uh, more, uh, the international TNE providers and as a result, more international students, uh, and the researchers here, uh, in, in the country.
And these institutions, of course, allowed Uzbekistan to expand capacity quickly, uh, while importing academic standards. Curricular and governance models, which is, I think also quite important. And they also, uh, kind of serve the signaling function to the rest of the world, that Uzbekistan is open, it's reform oriented, and it's serious about quality.
Yeah. Uh, so government was, uh, especially keen to attract institutions uh, in applied in high demand fields, economics, management, engineering, IT, and business. Yeah. So these were the areas closely linked to economic modernization, I would suggest, right? Yeah.
Alex Usher: No, it was, so what I'm wondering though, 'cause there's a couple of different strategies that countries can use here. One is to say, here's an international institution, here's a model everybody should rise to, its standard, right? So it's a kind of a competition model that sort of a, you know, here's a model and, and everybody should, should try to emulate it.
The other way to do it is, uh, the way Qatar has done it, which is, uh, you know, in effect to, to build into the mission of international campuses. They have to do some training of local institutions. So there's an effect, there's some twinning, uh, so that, you know, if the international institutions ever go away, then at least they've left some intellectual capital behind.
Which of those two strategies did Uzbekistan take?
Komiljon Karimov: I think, uh, in, in our case, what I would suggest, yes, it was more like benchmarking strategy. Yeah. So bring those, uh, the, and the government was also quite selective who to allow to operate in the country. Yeah. So government tried to bring the universities and that are quite good in the specific areas.
They may not be fantastic in terms of overall, uh, you know, the, the university rankings, but in the specialized fields, they, they were quite, uh, quite topnotch. Yeah. So, uh, and therefore the idea was to create sort of a benchmarking, uh, for, uh, uh, bringing those universities here so they can, uh, create important bars and standards for the local, uh, institutions. So whether it's a public or private, I think that the models that our country has, uh, has employed here.
Alex Usher: So then after you know, the arrival of international institutions, then you start to get domestic private providers, right? And I think that only starts around 2018 or 2019. So it's quite recent. Um, what. Did Uzbekistan learn from regulating its foreign institutions, that it transferred over into the regulation of new domestic, private institutions, and how big a role are private institutions playing in the, uh, expansion of higher education in the country?
Komiljon Karimov: Uh, so I think this is important question. So if you look now at the composition of higher education institutions in Uzbekistan, it's now the private plus TNE's. They outnumbered the public universities in Uzbekistan now. So we have altogether 207, uh, the, uh, higher education institutions and out of which, uh, 101 is public and 106 it's public, private, and TNE providers.
So as you can see, quite a large numbers or half of them. Uh, and then I would, uh, I, I would argue, you know here that I think this. The exponential growths in TNE's and privates, they almost happened at the same time because before 2017, there were only about seven TNE's. Of course, ourselves, we were the first ones, uh, with 25 years of history.
So there were quite a few of us, in fact, on the market. So, but this rapid growth started almost at the same time for both for TNE's and for private. But of course, I think it's not about more, I wouldn't really focus on regulatory frames that government loan, but it's more probably the governance models.
Yeah. And then giving more autonomy to, um, to universities, whether it is public or private. So those kind of features of, uh, TNE's would say, um, that we, uh, learned from, you know, those benchmarks.
Alex Usher: That's interesting. I don't often hear that, that, that in, in countries that are building up their higher education, that they're looking for more autonomy, usually they're looking for less, they're usually looking to be directive. So does that, you know, does that really frame the way you guys think about quality standards?
Like does, does Uzbekistan, when they, when they do quality assurance, is a lot of that about autonomy?
Komiljon Karimov: Yes. I think, uh, again, if you look at the higher education system, much of it of course still inherited, you know, from, uh, the, our history, right, from the Soviet systems, including the governance system. But also, uh, what what is more important, uh, in this context, the quality assurance system.
So quality assurance systems were very, uh, top down. You know, centrally controlled, but now we are moving from that to a more universal led, uh, so internal self, uh, the, uh, self-assurance in terms of the quality. Yeah. So that is a system that we see, uh, working, you know, everywhere. And I think now the, uh, the country is also moving towards that, uh, system. I think of the, uh, university self, uh, quality assurance systems.
And of course we are learning from different experiences we work with, uh, quite closely with, for instance, the British qa, and then we also work with Advanced HE and others. So we are really trying to learn the best, uh, practices from around the world. Uh, while introducing this, uh, the rigid, uh, quality assurance systems within the institutions.
Alex Usher: I wanna come back to pri uh, public institutions for a second. I, when I was there a couple years ago, it struck me that, okay, you've got one, you've got the National University, uh, named after oop, beg, and, but when you go beyond that, your, some of your best institutions are very specialized, right?
So the State University of Economics, the Institute of Irrigation, Agricultural, uh, Mechanization Engineers, so on, has any thought been given to merging these institutions in order to make a bigger institution that could make a mark on the international scene? Sort of the way that, you know, Adelaide University is, is emerging in, in Australia or, or the way the French have, have, uh, you know, have merged things together in places like Paris and Strasbourg.
Komiljon Karimov: Yes, absolutely. Again, I would say, you know, and when you asked me the first question about the recent history of higher education, I said, yeah, education system was highly specialized. So you wouldn't see this comprehensive uni. Of course there were, but very few. Most of the higher education institutions, they very specialized in specific areas.
So where I think now, uh, getting away from that title may still be there of the, uh, institution, but they heavily diversified the offers and degrees now in different areas. Right. But, uh, what we also see, especially in the recent years, as you said, the merger of, uh, institutions. We, and, uh, we have seen a number of examples in Tashkent and outside of, uh, Tashkent, where three or four, uh, institutions now merged into one.
This happened with the, uh, medical, uh, for instance, they merged into one, uh, trying to, uh, you know, to make the governance systems more effective and then financially to make them also more, uh, viable. And then of course to diversify what they can offer on the market. So this is happening in Uzbekistan and, uh, this also led in fact to decrease of the number of universities because we have seen quite a significant number of, uh, these mergers, uh, especially over the recent, uh, few years.
Alex Usher: And finally, uh, you know, Uzbekistan has accomplished so much in the last decade or so. How far do you think it can go in another decade? Like what, what will the main accomplishments be? If we did this interview again in 2036, what do you think we'd be talking about?
Komiljon Karimov: Yeah, I think, uh, over the next decade, let's say, the focus will shift from expansion to consolidation. That's what we see around them. So this from massification to more, uh, consolidation. Access, I don't think will be uh, the central issue. Yeah. Uh, so quality, research capacity, international reputation. I'm sure those would be, uh, in the, rather for, for the next, uh, say five, 10 years.
And key milestones will include, uh, stronger, uh, the postdoctoral education. Yeah. Uh, increased research funding and deeper international collaboration. Uh, the, uh, student mobility, academic mobility, uh, and more competitive academic careers. Universities will be judged more by outcomes, I believe, such as graduate employability, innovation, research impact.
Right. Uh, so, and if we will have this conversation again in 2036, I suspect we would not be talking about growth rates anymore. So we would be asking how Uzbek University's positions themselves globally. And this is already happening, in fact. Yeah. And how successful they have transitioned from rapid growth to sustainable excellence.
So that would be my prediction.
Alex Usher: Thank you so much for joining us today.
Komiljon Karimov: Thank you. Thank you, Alex.
Alex Usher: It just remains for me to thank our excellent producers, Tiffany MacLennan, Sam Pufek, and you, our listeners and readers for joining us. If you have any questions or comments about today's episode, please don't hesitate to get in touch at podcast@higheredstrategy.com. Join us next week when our guest will be, uh, emeritus Professor of Oxford University, Simon Marginson, he's back in our studios to talk about his new book, global Higher Education in the age of upheaval, on common goods, geopolitics, and decolonization, it's out from Bloomsbury in about two weeks. Bye for now.